Internal Server Error

Everyone has a friend whose betting technique is basic as it’s stupid: lay chalk across the board. He tries to convince you taking USC -45 more than Washington State may be the lock of the week despite the truth how the Trojans have yet to cross the 30-point barrier all period. The Yankees at -325 with CC about the mound? No issue, the Yanks have won nine straight! You forget to inform him he hasn’t carried out his homework simply because the Evil Empire clinched the night prior to and is starting their AAA lineup behind Sabathia. Occasionally these chalk bettors just need to discover a lesson. Now you need to lend this chump buffet cash for the rest of the trip simply because he forgot the number 1 sports handicapping rule: don’t fall in love with favorites.

Laying chalk is a strategy oddsmakers simply countered with inflated spreads, run/pucklines (my obligatory hockey shout out for that year) and severely juiced moneylines. In a sport like baseball, the best team generally hovers around a .600 winning percentage so why risk taking any team at greater than -150? The only worth you can discover here is creating your personal teaser or parlay, and nicely, we all know how that goes. (link to last entry here)

This leads us to the 2009 NFL period. In my period opening blog at Coopers Sports Picks and not a fish weblog, I did my greatest to steer anybody who works difficult for their cash as far aside from the No Fun League as possible. That was before weeks 1-7 proceeded to destroy my “NFL is the ideal parity machine” theory. This season has officially mutated into a chalk bettor’s heaven. The big dogs (Saints, Giants, Colts) are covering double-digit spreads with ease. This past week we saw favorites go 9-2-1 with six teams covering a touchdown or larger spread. Every week the sharps have warned Joe Public that the all-knowing oddsmakers will even out this number with painful results for those who choose to jump about the chalk bandwagon. The result? We’re one week away from mid-season and also the favorites just maintain on rolling. A fourth-quarter Saints flurry to erase a 21-point deficit over the Dolphins guaranteed how the NFL would have three undefeated teams (Saints, Broncos, Colts) heading into week eight for that first time in league background. Obviously the Football odds are exactly where they’re at for a cause and clearly, we are on unprecedented ground with this trend.

Enough crying. What can we do about this?

Pay close attention to scheduling. Many teams are entering the teeth of their division schedules. Appear for value in the underdogs within the tougher divisions (AFC East/North, NFC East) in interdivision games. Division play functions much more familiarity between coaching schemes, similar pace, and much less travel. You can worry less about a jetlagged teams background in mountain-central time or how a southern group will handle sleet and opposing fans’ snowballs once they are playing the majority of their remaining games within their division.

Stay aside from heavy road chalk. Everybody is nicely aware that big road favorites are covering at record pace this period but remember again we’re entering division play where double-digit blowouts are rare. The vast majority of road blowouts this season haven’t happened in traditional matchups, they’ve happened in as soon as each and every five year matchups for example the Giants-Bucs, Saints-Bills, Jets-Raiders. Create a tier-system for teams. Teams ranked in the lowest tier (Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Browns) qualify as candidates to risk large spreads against within the correct situation. Mid-tier teams (Dolphins, Titans, Seahawks) who have faced a brutal 1st half schedules warrant strong consideration if they are obtaining points against top-tier teams, especially when they’re at home. For that record, I’m willing to wager my lunch cash that the Titans finish .500 or better the second half from the period.

Finally, don’t read too a lot into the chalk trend. Focus on individual matchups and crunch numbers instead. Some weeks you’ll come up with more favorites, others you’ll have a stable of dogs. Either way, make sure you’re picking based on your research instead of blindly following a trend or gut feeling.

I know this period has thrown our chalk loving friends a slow fastball down the middle. We may be even be questioning our own time consuming study and considering abandoning discussion with fellow handicappers within the forums. Resist the urge to switch horses midstream. There’s lots of football left to be played. Do not neglect every dog has his day.

Looking for a good place for great football betting systems?

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.